India’s Green Hydrogen Costs Could Halve by 2030 as Reliance and Waaree Lead the Transition

India’s green hydrogen sector is poised for a dramatic reduction in production costs by 2030, potentially falling by nearly 50 % from current levels. Experts project that this sharp decline, driven by cheaper renewable energy, falling electrolyser costs, and robust policy support, could make green hydrogen far more competitive and spur rapid growth in demand to more than 12 million tonnes annually.

Two of India’s leading energy firms — Reliance Industries and Waaree Energies — are expected to be among the key beneficiaries of this shift as the country accelerates its transition to low-carbon fuels.

Why Green Hydrogen Costs Are Expected to Drop

1. Renewable Power Becoming Cheaper

Renewable electricity accounts for 60–70 % of green hydrogen production costs. As solar and wind tariffs continue to decline in India and hybrid renewable installations expand, the cost of the underlying power used for hydrogen production is expected to significantly decrease.

2. Electrolyser Costs to Plummet

Electrolysers — the core technology for splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity — contribute nearly 40 % of production equipment costs. Technological advances, use of alternative materials, large-scale manufacturing, and higher indigenisation are anticipated to reduce electrolyser stack costs by as much as 75 % over the next few years.

3. Policy Support Under the National Green Hydrogen Mission

Government incentives and regulatory reforms play a central role in making green hydrogen more affordable. Measures such as waivers on power banking and open-access charges, combined with production-linked incentives for electrolyser manufacturing, are expected to reduce costs further. The National Green Hydrogen Mission, backed by substantial funding, aims to support infrastructure, viability gap funding, research, and early project deployment across the country.

Together, these factors are expected to bring the levelised cost of green hydrogen down from around $3.5–4 per kilogram today to approximately $1.6 per kilogram by 2030. Such a cost structure would markedly improve the economics of green hydrogen for heavy industries and transport.

Demand Dynamics and Sectoral Adoption

Green hydrogen demand within India is expected to be driven first by industries such as fertilisers and refining, which are less sensitive to production costs and already seeking clean alternatives. In the long term, other sectors — including steel manufacturing, long-distance transport, and power generation — are also projected to contribute significantly to overall consumption.

With cost improvements and supportive frameworks, larger structured projects could achieve production costs below $3 per kilogram, and in some states offering additional concessions like land support and power banking waivers, costs might decline even further.

Opportunities for Key Energy Players

As the Indian green hydrogen ecosystem scales up, companies with diversified energy portfolios and strong access to capital are well positioned to capitalise on the shift. Reliance Industries, with its expansive refining and petrochemical base, and Waaree Energies, a major renewable energy developer with growing capabilities in electrolyser and solar manufacturing, stand out as likely primary beneficiaries of rising demand and falling costs.

Investments and strategic partnerships in electrolyser supply chains, renewable project development, and end-user integration are expected to be crucial for market leadership in the decade ahead.

Source: https://www.financialexpress.com/business/industry-reliance-and-waaree-to-lead-indias-1-6-green-hydrogen-shift-why-costs-are-set-to-fall-50-by-2030-4099067/